Flashback: On June 4, 2024, as the results started trickling in, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was in shock. The party had set the ambitious “400 paar” target for itself in the Lok Sabha elections. However, the party failed to get a majority on its own for the first time since 2014.The scale of the setback raised a fundamental question – was the “Modi‑magic” past its peak? After all, in an electoral career of 22 years, for the first time, PM Modi didn’t have a clear majority.

Within a few months of 2024 elections, BJP flipped the script, giving a masterclass on how to win elections. In the key state elections in Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Delhi and now Bihar, the BJP-led NDA has won four states. With 4 out of 6 wins, the party has shown that the 2024 Lok Sabha was merely a one‑off aberration.The BJP’s 2024 setback stemmed largely from internal drift and an unexpected rift with the RSS. JP Nadda’s remark that “the BJP runs itself” unsettled the Sangh and led to reduced booth-level mobilisation, weakening the party’s traditional grassroots strength. This disconnect was compounded by a sense of complacency after years of dominance. BJP’s internal assesments suggested eroded last-mile outreach, softer booth activity, and an overreliance on centralised leadership-centric messaging. Pollsters amplified this miscalibration by projecting an inflated performance, leading to misallocated resources and an underestimation of local grievances among communities such as non-Yadav OBCs, Brahmins, and SC/EBC groups.

Haryana: Sweep, stumble, resurge

The first big test for BJP after the 2024 setback was the Haryana state assembly elections. Facing a steep 10-year anti-incumbency against Manohar Khattar, the saffron party changed its CM just before the polls and brought in Nayab Saini. The party wooed women voters by launching ‘Lado Lakshmi Yojana’. A few months later, in October, as the final test started, BJP registered an impressive win. Where a revival for Congress was expected, BJP secured 48 of 90 seats, with 39.94 per cent vote share versus Congress’s 39.09 per cent.

In Lok Sabha polls after UP, if BJP suffered its biggest loss in any state, it was in Maharashtra. In 2019, the BJP‑led alliance had secured 41 of 48 seats (BJP 23). By 2024, the tally plunged – BJP got only about 9 seats, the NDA just 17. But the November state polls brought a sharp reversal. The BJP‑led Mahayuti won 235 of 288 seats, making the alliance more dominant than ever before. The BJP alone won 132, securing 26.78 per cent vote share, its best-ever performance in the state. Analysts attributed the turnaround to a large‑scale revival of booth‑level work, re‑engagement of the RSS structure, and targeted messaging addressing coalition dynamics and local issues. Eknath Shinde’s ‘Ladki Behin Yojana’ once again played a big role.

Soon after Maharashtra, it was the turn of Delhi where BJP had been in exile for 27 years. But BJP managed to win 47 of 70 seats, ending the decade‑long rule of the Aam Aadmi Party. After the 2024 Lok Sabha setback, winning a major urban contest became essential for signalling broader bounce‑back and BJP delivered it in Delhi.

In all the state elections that followed 2024 elections, Bihar was the most testing, as BJP allied with Nitish Kumar who himself was fighting anti-incumbency of 20 years and voter fatigue. On the other hand, Tejashwi, who had managed to lead RJD as the single largest party the last time in 2020, was named the CM candidate of the Mahagathbandhan. The opposition led the charge while making “vote-theft” and SIR the main attack points against the ruling coalition. But on Friday the NDA recorded its second-best in Bihar with 206 seats. BJP itself almost bested its best performance in the state with 90 seats against 91 from 2010.BJP has mastered the art of deflecting the built-up anti-incumbency against being years in governance, to scratching the social hegemonic memories and using it as a launch pad for presenting themselves as an alternative to it.In Haryana they did it by reminding the masses about the Jaat dominance, and consolidating the non-jaat votes, creating a counter polarisation against the very deeply rooted jaat politics of the state and backed it up by giving a Punjabi Khatri and then an OBC CM.Maharashtra was no different, where despite having a strong Maratha face in incumbent CM Eknath Shinde, BJP played on anti-Maratha plank, creating a wider caste coalition, at a time when Manoj Jarange Patil’s demand for Maratha reservation had a huge resonance in Maratha region of the state. The BJP-led Mahayuti won 37 of the region’s 46 seats.In Bihar, BJP/NDA made concerted efforts to bring back the memories of “jungle raj” that worked effectively.The biggest strength of the party has been its organisational skills and ground workers who effectively mobilise the voters. PM Modi’s personal guarantees and the idea of a “double-engine” government have also worked in favour of BJP.With Bihar giving an astonishing victory to BJP, the party has yet another state in its kitty. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his victory speech to the BJP workers, has already set the next agenda- 2026 Bengal polls. Will BJP continue its winning streak, keeping 2024 as just a minor setback, we will know in coming months.