The Election Commission provisionally recorded voter turnout for the Maharashtra polls at 65% compared with 61.74% in 2019.
| Photo Credit: ANI

With 45% of the votes counted in Maharashtra, early trends suggest that the Mahayuti alliance has managed to reverse its setbacks in the ‘poor’ and the ‘very poor’ districts of the State suffered in the 2024 General Elections. Moreover, it has not only managed to hold its lead in the ‘very rich’ and the ‘rich’ districts of the State but has also made considerable gains in the areas compared to its performance earlier this year in the Lok Sabha elections.

For the purpose of this analysis, districts in Maharashtra were divided into five economic groups — very poor, poor, middling, rich, and very rich — based on their per capita Net District Domestic Product (NDDP) at current prices in 2022-23. Districts in the ‘very rich’ category had a per capita NDDP of over ₹3 lakh; those in the ‘rich’ category had a per capita NDDP of ₹2.4 lakh-₹2.9 lakh; those in the ‘middling’ category had a per capita NDDP of ₹2 lakh-₹2.3 lakh; those in the ‘poor’ category had a per capita NDDP of ₹1.5 lakh-₹1.9 lakh; and those in the ‘very poor’ category had a per capita NDDP below ₹1 lakh.

In the districts categorised as ‘very poor’, the Mahayuti alliance has secured 47.6% of the votes in the 2024 Asssembly polls, marking a 7.1 percentage point increase compared with the 2024 general elections. Similarly, in the ‘poor’ districts of the state, the alliance has secured over 48% of the votes, showing a 5.6 percentage point increase compared with its Lok Sabha performance. The MVA alliance however has suffered major setbacks in the ‘poor’ and the ‘very poor’ districts of the State, where it had secured more votes than the Mahayuti alliance in the Lok Sabha elections earlier. For instance it’s vote share has declined by 10 percentage points in the ‘very poor’ districts and by over 13 points in the ‘poor’ districts of the state.

The conclusions are based on the 45% of the votes counted in the State. The copy will be updated after more votes are counted.

Table 1:The table shows the vote share (in %) secured by the various alliances across the five types of districts: very rich, rich, middling, very poor and poor in the 2024 Assembly polls and the change from the 2024 General elections (in percentage points)

Observations from the table:

• Mahayuti alliance retains its lead in the ‘very rich’ and ‘rich’ districts of the state having secured over 50% of the vote share. The alliance’s biggest increases in terms of vote share was recorded in the poor, very poor and middling districts.

• The MVA has suffered a vote share drop across all types of districts.

Table 2: The table shows the seats (in number) led by the various alliances across the five types of districts: very rich, rich, middling, very poor and poor in the 2024 Assembly polls and the change from the 2024 General elections  

Observations from the table:

• The Mahayuti alliance has increased its seat count by 24 in the ‘poor’ category and by 12 in the ‘very poor’ category in the 2024 Assembly polls, compared with the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

• It has secured a notable 52 seats in the ‘middling’ category marking a massive 27 seat increase compared with the 2024 general elections

• The MVA has failed to increase its seat tally across any type of district

Why focus on ‘poor’ and ‘very poor’?

A previous analysis of vote shares secured by the Mahayuti and the MVA in the 2024 general elections shows that the richer districts backed the Mahayuti, while the poorer sections stood by the MVA. The MVA secured 44-45% of the votes in the ‘poor’ and ‘very poor’ districts compared to the 38-41% obtained by the Mahayuti coalition in the Lok Sabha polls. In the richer districts, the MVA secured fewer votes.

The Mahayuti managed to reverse the trend in the 2024 Assembly polls, by securing more votes than the MVA alliance across all types of districts.