Bhubaneswar: The upcoming by-election in Nuapada has turned into a political crucible that could reshape the contours of Odisha’s power politics. What might have appeared as a routine contest to fill a vacant assembly seat has now evolved into a decisive test for all three major parties — the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Congress — each grappling with its own existential questions.

Once considered an impregnable fortress of the BJD, Nuapada today mirrors the opposition party’s growing disquiet. The selection of Snehangini Chhuria, a leader from Bargarh district, has triggered a wave of discontent within the local unit. The rebellion that followed — with over 50 sarpanchs, panchayat committee members, and hundreds of grassroots workers crossing over to the BJP — marks a significant dent in the BJD’s once-formidable organisational structure. The defection of senior leader Lambodhar Nial, who had contested the 2024 Lok Sabha polls from Kalahandi on a BJD ticket, has added to the party’s woes.

For over two decades, the BJD thrived on unity, discipline, and the magnetic appeal of Naveen Patnaik. But post-2024, the party’s aura of invincibility appears to be fading. Many veterans have deserted the ship, some finding new homes in the BJP and others drifting towards the Congress. The irony is hard to miss — the same strategies of defection and disruption that once served the BJD so well are now being employed effectively against it.

The BJP has played its cards with precision. Its biggest masterstroke came when Jay Dholakia, son of the late BJD MLA Rajendra Dholakia, joined the saffron camp. The move was not only symbolic but strategic — it rattled the BJD’s internal confidence and forced the regional party to recalibrate its entire campaign machinery. The BJP’s induction of local heavyweights and its aggressive ground strategy suggest that it is leaving nothing to chance.

Initially, the BJD had formed three district-level committees under Prasanna Acharya’s leadership, deliberately excluding coastal leaders to project a regional face. But as discontent grew, the party hastily parachuted in its seasoned election specialists — a clear sign of nervousness.

For Snehangini Chhuria, the challenge is formidable. Her residence in Attabira, nearly 160 kilometres from Nuapada, and her recent loss to BJP’s Nihar Mahanand by nearly 29,000 votes in 2024 have become rallying points for critics who question the wisdom of importing a candidate from another district. “Is there no capable leader in Nuapada?” has become a refrain echoing through tea stalls and street corners.

Meanwhile, the Congress, though weakened, has shown unusual seriousness this time. Under Pradesh Congress Committee chief Bhakta Charan Das, the party hopes to reclaim its relevance. In the last election, the Congress’s official candidate Sarat Pattanayak polled a mere 15,505 votes, while rebel Ghasiram Majhi — now back in the fold — secured over 50,000. This time, the Congress expects to consolidate that split vote.

The stakes, however, are highest for Naveen Patnaik and Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi. For Naveen, a loss in Nuapada after the setbacks in Kantabanji and the close shave in Hinjili could inflict a serious blow to his prestige and shake public confidence in the BJD’s leadership. Conversely, a win for the BJP would serve as a stamp of approval for Majhi’s fledgling government and strengthen the saffron party’s narrative of momentum.

Political observers liken this contest to Napoleon’s Battle of Waterloo — a fight not just for territory but for legacy. For some, Nuapada may decide who controls the narrative of Odisha’s political future.

“The ground sentiment suggests that the bypoll could swing on local perceptions of power and patronage. By-elections often favour the ruling party at the state or national level, as voters tend to expect tangible development benefits by aligning with the government. Yet, the anti-incumbency currents, organisational discontent, and shifting loyalties could make this contest anything but predictable,” says Srirama Dash, a political observer.

In essence, adds Dash, the Nuapada by-election is more than a local skirmish. It is a referendum on leadership, loyalty, and legitimacy — one that could redraw Odisha’s political map ahead of the next big electoral cycle.

“Whether it becomes Naveen’s Waterloo or Majhi’s moment of glory will be known only when the ballots are counted,” he observed.