In a historic and decisive mandate paving the way for Nitish Kumar’s tenth term as Chief Minister, Bihar returned the ruling NDA to power in a landslide Friday in the Assembly elections, decimating the Opposition Mahagathbandhan and strengthening the hands of the BJP at the Centre ahead of electoral battles in some key states going to polls next year.
With the NDA crossing the 200-mark in a House of 243, the mandate appeared to be similar to the one in 2010 when the JD(U)-BJP alliance was swept back to power with 206 seats and Nitish became Chief Minister for a third term.
For the Mahagathbandhan, comprising the RJD, Congress and three Left parties, this was a crushing defeat, shrinking the Opposition space in the House considerably. Until late night, its tally was hovering around 35 seats.
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Hailing the “prachand jeet” (massive victory) of the NDA and invoking “Chhathi Maiya”, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, addressing BJP workers at the party headquarters in New Delhi, said Bihar had voted for development and progress and had destroyed the “communal MY formula” of the “jungle raj” party – a reference to the RJD and its Muslim-Yadav core base.
Modi described the verdict as “a victory for democracy” and “victory of good governance, development, public welfare and social justice” and pledged to work with renewed vigour for the state’s progress.
Reiterating that “the katta sarkar will never return to Bihar… people of Bihar have voted for viksit Bihar”, Modi sent Mamata Banerjee’s TMC government in West Bengal, where elections are to be held next year, a clear warning: “Gangaji Bihar se behati hui, Bangal tak pahunchti hai. Bihar ne Bangal mai BJP ki vijay ka raasta bhi bana diya hai (The Ganga flows to Bengal via Bihar. Bihar has paved the way for a BJP victory in Bengal). I want to assure the people of Bengal: The BJP will, with your support, uproot the jungle raj from West Bengal.”
And in first remarks, Nitish underlined the “complete unity” among NDA partners, thanked voters and expressed gratitude to Prime Minister Modi, LJP (Ram Vilas), RLM and HAM. He said Bihar will now progress even further with the support of all NDA members.
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“People of the state have expressed their confidence in our government by giving us a massive mandate in the polls. For this, I bow to all the esteemed voters of the state, and express my heartfelt gratitude and thanks,” he said in a post on X.
He also expressed gratitude to Prime Minister Modi for his support. “The NDA alliance is set to achieve a massive majority in this election by demonstrating complete unity. For this, thanks and gratitude are also due to all the partners of the NDA alliance – Chirag Paswan Ji, Jitan Ram Manjhi Ji and Upendra Kushwaha Ji. With the support of all of you, Bihar will progress even further and will be included in the category of the most developed states in the country,” he said.
Chirag Paswan said he firmly believed that Nitish would continue to remain the Chief Minister. He attributed the “arrogance” of the Opposition alliance for its “humiliating loss” and said the people’s “faith in the unity of NDA partners” was the reason for their convincing win.
For Nitish, who battled signs of voter weariness and questions over his shifting political alignments, the mandate reflects a noticeable shift on the ground, indicating that voters are once again reposing trust in his governance model, his mix of labharthi schemes and doles.
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The NDA secured a 46.52% vote share, well ahead of the Mahagathbandhan’s 37.64%. Within the NDA, the BJP had a 20.08% vote share, followed by the JD(U) with 19.26%, the LJP (RV) with 4.97%, the HAM (S) 1.18% and the RLM 1.03%. In the Mahagathbandhan, the RJD got 23% of the vote share, the Congress 8.71%, the Left parties 4.18%, the VIP 1.38%, and the IIP 0.37%.
In the 2020 Assembly elections, the Mahagathbandhan had marginally edged out the NDA in terms of vote share – 38.75% versus 37.26%. In the Mahagathbandhan, the RJD had a vote share of 23.11%, followed by the Congress with 9.48%, the Left parties 4.64%. In the NDA, the BJP had led with a 19.46% vote share, followed by the JD(U) with 15.39%, the HAM (S) 0.89% and the VIP – then an NDA constituent – with 1.52%. That year, the then undivided LJP and RLM had contested independently, winning 5.66% and 1.77% of the vote share, respectively.
Dynamics within the NDA could change this time if the BJP becomes more assertive. But what may hold it back is JD(U)’s importance as an ally at the Centre with 12 MPs.
A JD(U) source said the BJP, by being the senior partner in the alliance with greater influence on junior allies than the JD(U), could assert more in terms of policy decisions, appointment of bureaucrats and securing better portfolios for its ministers.
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“This is where Union Minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh and JD(U) national working president Sanjay Kumar Jha will have to come in and ensure there’s balance,” the JD(U) source said.
A BJP leader, however, said: “No such thing is going to happen. Nitish Kumar will be CM again. In 2010, Nitish got 115 seats, just seven short of majority. He could have dumped BJP then but he did not do so.”
– With Anjishnu Das in New Delhi