Markets snapped their five-week-long consolidation trend, driven by improving global cues, easing geopolitical concerns, and a renewed uptick in foreign institutional investor (FII) buying during the latter half of the week. After a tentative start, sentiment improved midweek, leading to broader market participation.
The easing of tensions between Iran and Israel helped revive global risk appetite, further supporting the rally. Consequently, benchmark indices ended the week on a firm note, with the Nifty closing at 25,637.80 and the Sensex at 84,058.90—both near their respective weekly highs.
With this, Analyst Rahul Ghose, Founder and CEO, Octanom Tech and Hedged.in, interacted with ET Markets regarding the outlook on Nifty and Bank Nifty along with an index strategy for the upcoming week. Following are the edited excerpts from his chat:
How would you characterize the overall market structure in India right now? Are we in a clear uptrend or likely to see a range?
The Indian equity markets are currently in a mature uptrend, though showing signs of consolidation near all-time highs. Nifty 50 has sustained above key breakout levels, but volatility due to global macro events—especially crude price swings and geopolitical tensions—has introduced short-term rangebound behaviour. The broader market remains healthy, with midcaps and smallcaps outperforming, indicating strong underlying participation.
Given the recent geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in crude, what technical scenarios would you map out for Nifty?
Crude has pulled back from recent highs, which is mildly positive for India. However, ongoing US-Iran-Israel friction keeps headline risk elevated.
Technically, the Nifty 50 is in a bullish structure on all major time frames. However, in the short-term, one can see a pullback/correction, considering it is approaching resistance areas on daily and weekly time frame price charts. The 26,000-26,200 level is the level from which Nifty created a strong impulse downmove. With markets currently trading around 25,600 to 25,700 levels, one needs to be cautious and look for buying opportunities only on a retracement. In the short-term, 25000-24700 is likely to act as a strong support and any dips towards that level will attract buying opportunities on the index.
Which key support and resistance levels on the Nifty 50 are you watching, and what chart patterns or indicators validate those levels?
Support levels – 25,000-24,700
Resistance levels – 26,000 -26,300
Bank Nifty has performed well recently—what technical drivers are signaling strength or weakness here?
Bank Nifty is showing leadership, which is a healthy sign for the broader market. PSU banks and large private players have contributed meaningfully.
Key technical drivers:
Price has sustained above 57,100, turning previous resistance into support.
The 20-EMA is acting as a reliable dynamic support.
MACD is on a fresh bullish crossover, and RSI is around 67, suggesting strength but with room before overbought territory.
What is the FII action indicating right now?
FIIs have turned net buyers in the past 8–10 sessions after being cautious through May and early June. Their action indicates renewed confidence, particularly in banking, capital goods, and autos.
However, they’re still selectively hedging with index options, which tells us the buying is not yet aggressive, but more measured and data-driven.
Which index seems to perform well? What are the critical technical levels and momentum readings that are giving you confidence?
Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Bank are standout performers.
Nifty Midcap 100 is near its life highs with no negative divergence on weekly RSI, which is currently around 65—strong but not yet in the red zone.
Nifty Bank has shown a fresh breakout from a 10-month consolidation zone, supported by strong volumes and MACD crossover on daily and weekly charts.RSI is far from being overbought, with levels at 68.
What’s the take on the metal index that has really performed well in last few sessions?
The metal index has outperformed with strong breadth. The rally is primarily fuelled by positive news related to the Israel-Iran ceasefire and improved global demand
Stocks like Tata Steel, Hindalco, and JSW Steel have confirmed breakouts with rising OI (open interest), validating the uptrend.
If there was one stock you had to pick for our readers that you’re busy on, which stock would it be? What entry, stop-loss and target levels do you derive from its charts?
One high-conviction stock right now is Nestle India
Entry: Around the cmp.
Stop-loss: Rs 2305 (below recent swing low and 20-day EMA).
Target: 2700-2800 in the next 4–6 weeks.
So, any stocks that you have picked for our traders?
Nestle India, ICICI Bank, Ultratech Cement, & Reliance are looking good to enter as per technical charts. All these stocks are poised for a breakout and have no nearby resistance in the short-term.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)