Spot gold in the London market breached $4,350 an ounce this week, marking a historic high. In India, prices have soared past ₹1,31,000 per 10 grams, in MCX, just ahead of the festive season. Since the beginning of August 2025, domestic gold prices have surged over 32%, while global prices have gained more than 30%. This relentless rally has left many questions: What’s fueling this surge, and is a correction on the horizon?

Why Are Global and Domestic Prices Rising Without Correction?

The current rally in gold is driven by a perfect storm of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Investors are flocking to gold as a safe haven, amid rising global uncertainty. The lack of any meaningful correction is largely due to:

• Persistent geopolitical tensions
• Weakening of the US dollar
• Strong retail and institutional demand
• High central bank purchases
• Supply constraints

In India, the festive and wedding season has further amplified demand, pushing prices higher despite the global rally.

Why Has the Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Had No Impact?

Despite a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, gold prices remain elevated. This is because there are expectations that the ceasefire may be fragile and temporary, with risks of renewed conflict. Broader tensions in the Middle East, including Iran’s involvement and regional instability, continue to fuel risk aversion. Investors are pricing in long-term geopolitical uncertainty, not just short-term peace deals.

Thus, gold continues to act as a hedge against geopolitical shocks, even when temporary resolutions emerge.

Why Are People So Resilient on Gold?

Gold’s resilience stems from its historical role as a store of value. In uncertain times, investors prefer assets that could preserve wealth during inflation or currency depreciation. Also, they rely on assets that are globally recognized and liquid and offer psychological comfort in volatile markets.

In India, cultural affinity and seasonal buying further strengthen gold’s appeal.

Central banks are also increasing gold purchases, diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets due to heightened risk aversion amid growing concerns over U.S. governance and monetary policy direction.

Weak US Dollar and US Treasury Shutdown

The US dollar index has weakened significantly in recent months due to anticipation of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, slowing US economic growth, and rising fiscal deficits and debt concerns. The ongoing U.S. Treasury shutdown has also intensified global economic uncertainty, prompting investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold.

A weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to international buyers, thereby boosting demand and prices. Historically, gold and the dollar share an inverse relationship, and this trend is playing out strongly in 2025.

Impact of New Tariffs on China

The recent imposition of new tariffs on Chinese goods by the US has rattled global trade. This has several implications for gold. This could increase trade tensions, prompting investors to seek safe assets. It may also lead to slower global growth, further boosting the appeal of gold. China, a major gold consumer and importer, may diversify reserves further into gold to hedge against trade-related risks. Thus, the trade war narrative is adding another layer of support to gold’s bullish momentum.

Are Fundamentals Still Positive for Gold?

Yes, the fundamentals remain strongly supportive. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, trade concerns with China, weakening dollar and potential Fed rate cuts and Investor shift toward safe assets amid volatile equity markets collectively create a favorable environment for gold, both as a hedge and an investment.

Is a Price Correction Possible? What Could Trigger It?

While the rally seems unstoppable, a correction is always possible. Potential triggers include:

• Stabilization in geopolitical tensions.
• Strengthening of the US dollar, possibly due to unexpected Fed policy shifts.
• Profit booking by investors after such a steep rise.
• Improved global economic outlook, reducing the need for safe-haven assets.
• Government interventions, such as import restrictions or higher taxes on gold.

If any of these factors materialize, gold could see a short-term pullback, though the long-term outlook remains constructive.

Gold’s meteoric rise in 2025 is a reflection of global anxiety, economic fragility, and investor caution. While the fundamentals remain supportive, the possibility of a correction cannot be ruled out. For now, gold continues to glitter—both as a cultural symbol and a financial fortress.

(The author of ther article, Hareesh V is Head of Commodity Research, Geojit Investments.)