Indian equity markets continue to grapple with a lack of clear direction, weighed down by global uncertainties and domestic policy cues. In a conversation with ET Now, Chakri Lokapriya, CIO-Equities, LGT Wealth shared his perspective on what is holding markets back, how key sectors are shaping up, and where investors may find opportunities amid volatility.
At the broader level, Lokapriya believes markets are stuck in wait-and-watch mode. “The market is kind of waiting for that one word called tariff. Until there is a kind of resolution, we are going to be range-bound because that creates a lot of uncertainty,” he said. With the Union Budget due in February, expectations around capital expenditure are also building. According to him, “there needs to be a capital expenditure focus this year because it was missing in the last two years. Until these two events happen, we are going to be stuck in a range.”
Insurance: Competitive Pressures Persist
On the insurance pack, including ICICI Lombard and ICICI Prudential, Lokapriya pointed to structural and near-term challenges. “One thing impacting the whole industry is the labour code, and that is like a one-off event. As it readjusts, the market will look past it because this is a permanent feature and will be discounted,” he explained.However, competition remains intense. Rising motor claims have led to higher provisioning needs, limiting margin expansion. “Margins will remain under pressure, so we have to bank on a recovering economy leading to higher volumes,” he added.
IT: From a Tough 2025 to a Better 2026
The IT sector, which struggled through calendar year 2025, could see a turnaround ahead. Lokapriya noted that while the current quarter is expected to be soft, trends are improving beneath the surface. “Some of the AI infrastructure spend has now translated into linked systems, and that is where Indian IT services companies will benefit in the coming quarters,” he said.
Encouragingly, margin stability is emerging and deal flows are holding up. “Total order values are in line to marginally better than expected. Given last year’s underperformance, IT should do much better this year,” he said.Reliance vs L&T: Selective Buying Opportunities
Market corrections in heavyweights like Reliance Industries and L&T have sparked debate on whether declines should be used to accumulate. Lokapriya was clear in his preference. “Reliance, clearly yes, because they have a lot going forward in terms of new energy businesses. They have also been impacted by political news like Iran, which presents buying opportunities.”
On L&T, he advised caution. “We need to wait for what the budget entails for capital expenditure. That will hold the key. Until then, I would rather buy Reliance,” he said.
Bharat Coking Coal IPO: Hold with Selective Profit-Taking
Commenting on the highly subscribed Bharat Coking Coal IPO, Lokapriya described it as a “simple, powerful business.” He highlighted India’s long-term coal demand, the company’s market leadership, and its expansion plans.
“Phenomenal subscriptions reflect that strength. Even for a long-term holder, I would continue to hold after listing,” he said. For shorter-term investors, he suggested that “around 40% upside could be an opportunity to take some money off the table.”
Banks: Fundamentals Intact Despite Recent Pressure
Private sector banks such as HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank have faced pressure recently, but Lokapriya attributed this to company-specific issues rather than sectoral weakness. “Balance sheets are still very strong, valuations are alright, and banks do very well in a recovering economy,” he said, adding that financial services are likely to outperform this year.
On the PSU versus private bank debate, he sees continued merit in state-owned lenders. “If there is a capex focus in the February budget, PSU banks will be in demand because capital expenditure flows through them. Their balance sheets are in great shape,” he said, naming SBI and Canara Bank among strong contenders.
Quick Commerce: From Growth Story to Trading Play
The easing of the 10-minute delivery mandate has brought some relief to the quick commerce space, but Lokapriya believes challenges remain. “The removal is neutral for the entire sector because it applies to everybody,” he said.
Intense competition and self-inflicted margin pressures continue to weigh on valuations. “Multiples and target prices are likely to come down, so it becomes more of a trading stock in the current environment,” he cautioned.
Metals: After a Strong Run, Still Room to Perform
Despite a sharp rally, Lokapriya remains constructive on metals. “They have had a phenomenal run, but they will continue to do well,” he said, citing demand resurgence across ferrous and non-ferrous players such as Tata Steel, Hindalco and Hindustan Copper.
With global growth accelerating, he believes the sector still has legs. “Valuations are still alright. Even though prices have run up, metals should continue to do well,” he concluded.
Overall, while near-term market direction remains clouded by policy and global uncertainties, Lokapriya’s outlook suggests selective opportunities across sectors for investors willing to navigate volatility with a medium- to long-term lens.