NEW DELHI: Justin Trudeau‘s aggression towards India coincides with the Canadian Prime Minister’s sliding popularity ratings at home and growing dissent against him, which are being seen to have enhanced the need for him to woo the politically-significant Sikh community ahead of next year’s federal elections.
Falling approval ratings
Amid complaints over rising cost of living, a struggling healthcare system, and growing crime rate, an Ipsos poll showed that just 26% saw Trudeau as the best PM candidate, 19 percentage points below Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
This comes after two electoral setbacks. Last month, the in-power Liberal Party lost in Montreal, seen as a safe seat, just three months after being defeated in a special election in Toronto after holding the seat for three decades. To make matters worse, Jagmeet Singh‘s New Democratic Party withdrew support to the minority Liberal govt days before the Montreal loss. Singh has been a supporter of Khalistan.
There have been calls from Trudeau’s party colleagues for him to step down, as many experts are predicting that the Liberals will face the same plight as the Conservatives in the UK. Trudeau is holding on after surviving two no-confidence motions in Parliament.
Canada has over 7.7 lakh Sikhs, the fourth-largest ethnic community, with a section backing the demand for Khalistan.
Tense ties with India
India was always skeptical of Trudeau’s policy on pro-Khalistan separatists. In 2018, PM Narendra Modi met him on the sixth day of his first official visit to the country amid a controversy over an invitation for a dinner at the Canadian high commission to businessman Jaspal Atwal who was convicted but later acquitted in a plot to assassinate a Punjab minister in Vancouver Island in 1986. While the invitation was withdrawn, Trudeau sought to distance himself from the controversy.
There was, however, no change in stance as the Trudeau govt refused to clamp down on protests outside Indian consulates, some of which saw demonstrators burning the Indian flag.
On the 40th anniversary of Operation Bluestar, processions in Ontario and Toronto saw floats depicting the assassination of former PM Indira Gandhi by her bodyguards in 1984. The Canadian govt refused to stop a referendum on Khalistan, which was backed by Sikhs for Justice.
Relations hit a low in 2023
Relations hit a low after Trudeau alleged that “Indian agents” were involved in the killing of terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in June 2023. The Canadian PM made the accusations soon after his return from New Delhi after the G20 Summit in Sept. India not only denied the allegations but sought concrete evidence, which Canada has refused to provide.
The two sides halted negotiations for a trade agreement and India temporarily stopped processing visas as it feared for the safety of its mission staff in Canada. Over 40 Canadian diplomats were withdrawn from missions in India after New Delhi raised the principle of reciprocity in staffing.
Canada also sought to include India in a probe into alleged election interference.
During a meeting with Trudeau on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in New Delhi last year, PM Modi had expressed concern over anti-India activities in Canada by extremists.
History with Trudeaus
This is, however, not the first time that separatists have caused major friction in bilateral ties between India and Canada. Trudeau’s father, Pierre Trudeau, a former PM, was accused of mishandling ties with New Delhi as Canadian authorities had failed to act against Khalistani extremists in the 1980s.
Elliott had refused India’s request for extradition of Talwinder Singh Parmar, a member of Babbar Khalsa, who fled to Canada after being accused of killing two cops in Punjab. An alleged mastermind of the 1985 Kanishka bombing, he was killed in Punjab seven years later.