If there’s one party that can give the Kerala Congress a run for its money in the art of serial splits, sudden realignments, and political self-reinvention, it is the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in Kerala. Over the past five years, the NCP in the State has behaved like a pressure cooker on a perpetual boil; bursting into three factions, reshuffling loyalties and endlessly recalibrating its place in the political matrix.

The first explosion took place just before the 2021 Assembly elections, when MLA Mani C. Kappen broke away, rebranded himself, and walked straight into the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). The next shockwave hit in 2023, triggered by the Pawar family’s dramatic vertical split in Maharashtra. In Kerala, a rebel faction led by N.A. Muhammad Kutty, already locked in a long-running turf war with State chief P.C. Chacko, declared overnight loyalty to the Ajit Pawar camp. The remaining group stuck with Sharad Pawar.

But what makes the drama even more intriguing is not the split itself, but the ideological elasticity that both sides follow. Both sides maintain that national alliances may dictate loyalties across India, but not in Kerala, which they insist, is a separate arena altogether, demanding its own playbook.

So the NCP (Saradchandra Pawar) stays snug within the Left Democratic Front (LDF) fold, fighting shoulder-to-shoulder with the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)]. Meanwhile, the NCP, the Ajit Pawar-led party that is a constituent of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Maharashtra, wants nothing to do with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led bloc in Kerala and is knocking on every door except the NDA’s.

Mr. Muhammad Kutty, national general secretary of the NCP, seeks to frame this contradiction as political dexterity rather than ideological confusion. “Despite being part of the NDA in Maharashtra, we contested the Delhi elections independently. In the northeast too, we function separately,” he says.

Treading with caution

With the State once again marching towards polls, both the NCP factions are manoeuvring with caution. The SP faction wants to hold on to its existing turf under the LDF umbrella. The NCP, left out in the cold by both fronts, has embraced a solo run.

“We’re fielding 360 candidates across local bodies, including the six Corporations,” says Mr. Kutty. At the same time, they’re working to pull in cadres from smaller outfits such as the Samajwadi Party to strengthen grassroots muscle. Walking into the polls with the original NCP symbol, the clock, serves as its biggest confidence in this endeavour.

Across the aisle, the NCP-SP faction under Thomas K. Thomas sees the elections as a chance to reboot its identity with a new symbol—a man blowing a trumpet. Losing the traditional symbol doesn’t bother him. In Kerala, he argues, symbols have never really been the NCP’s rallying cry.

“As far as Kerala goes, the NCP’s fortunes rise and fall with the LDF. And right now, backed by a solid welfare delivery record, the Left is miles ahead of its rivals,” he says.

But beneath all the swagger lies a nagging question, that who owns how much of the NCP vote? In 2021, the unified party notched up a modest 0.99% vote share and won two of its three seats. Today, with the split formalised and loyalties tested, both factions are unsure how much of that sliver of support will follow them into the polling booths.