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market: Quality, growth and valuations key to investing in current market: Anshul Saigal

Byadmin

Jan 29, 2025


“Yeh correction jo hai, this correction in the market was much required. It was becoming so easy for the retail investor to make money,” says Anshul Saigal, Founder, Saigal Capital.

Iss baar zor ka jhatka zor se laga hai, not zor ka jhatka dheera se laga hai, mid and smallcaps mein zor ka jhatka zor se laga hai. Are we nearing a bottom in small and midcap stocks or jhatke ka impact chalta rahega?
Anshul Saigal: I am reminded of a rustic Punjabi quote by Giani Zail Singh, our erstwhile president. He used to say that Punjabi jananiya, which is Punjabi ladies, aaise hoti hai jo ki gaon mein rahti hai, wo aaise hoti hai ki unhone ghunghat bhi nikalna hai aur aankh bhi maar ni hai, dono cheeze nahi ho sakti and waisa hi retail investor market main aaisa hota hai jisko upside bhi chahiye aur market main correction bhi nahi chahiye, wo ho nahi sakta.
Yeh correction jo hai, this correction in the market was much required. It was becoming so easy for the retail investor to make money.

He was thinking that he will invest in a stock and in six months it will triple, that sort of mindset needed a break. And the last four months have given that. This is very healthy. This is healthy for the markets and it is healthy for the next leg of the growth in the markets.

Also, if you look at the economic activity, since COVID we have been at breakneck speed. Even on that count, we needed a breather and this period has given, last say two quarters have given us a period where we are kind of taking a breather on even economic activity, that also sets the platform very nicely for future growth.

In the context of where the world is and where Indian expectations are, say 6-6.5% GDP growth in Indian quarters is expected to be a sort of a disappointment.

But if you look around, we are in a very sweet spot at the size that we are and 6-6.5% kind of GDP growth, even if it is cyclically low, is quite robust. Even the numbers that we are seeing, as your analysts were showing a little while ago, it is quite clear that numbers are mixed. It is not like numbers are a wash through. And so, on all those counts now with the correction, there is more reason to be constructive than not. And if you are a long-term quality investor, you should rejoice this correction rather than be wary of it. So, where are you shopping? Have you started shopping already?
Anshul Saigal: Yes, I have. I must say that I have been buying of late and I must say also that rather than look for particular sectors, etc, my thought process at this time is that I will stick to quality, one is that.
Second, I will look for pockets where there is growth and that could be in across sectors. It does not have to be in any individual sector. And, of course, thirdly, I will look for reasonable valuations, which in many segments of the market that has arisen.

So, just to give you some instances, if you look at the alcohol beverages space, there are very interesting opportunities there. You have opportunities of margin expansion and hence upside in earnings.

You have opportunities where there are special situations that certain companies are hidden in a larger business which has very different economics and this company is hidden within that and so it is getting lower valuations.
At some point just like the ITC demerger, this company will get demerged and as a result valuations will be very different for the business.

So, alcoholic beverages look very interesting. Financials, both private sector as also public sector banks. And if you look at some of the NBFC results, those have been stupendous. In fact, AUM growth has been north of 20% in many instances, that looks quite interesting to us.

Then, there are, of course, stock specific opportunities, whether it is in defence or it is in power and related sectors.
Multiple opportunities have arisen at this time and I am for sure this is a time when I am rejoicing and shopping.

This whole narrative that get out of smallcap and move to largecap, get out of midcap and move to largecap, is there merit in doing it now? Is there merit in thinking like this or there is no merit in this thought at all?
Anshul Saigal: I would not say there is no merit in this. I mean, moving from one segment to the other, I do not think that an investor should be thinking like that. You could get high growth companies in largecaps and you could stick to those and you will make money.

As well as you could get high growth companies at reasonable valuations in small and midcaps and stick to those and make more money than largecaps. So, it is not an either or thing. It is picking your segments, picking your comfort zones, and buying opportunities there.

So, for instance, we know that in cement, there has been significant consolidation. If you look at recent results, results have been reasonably okay, in line with expectations, and the commentary has been positive. Now, with the consolidation, most quality companies which are going to show growth are going to be in the largecap space and so sticking to largecaps in cement may make sense.

However, if you look at certain other sectors of the market, say capital goods, etc, there we are seeing significant growth in the small and midcap space and companies which have quality businesses and have significant upsides from here have seen meaningful corrections, valuations have become reasonable, and so if you are picking opportunities there, then even small and midcap capital goods companies will make you a lot of money.

So, it is about picking your pocket, segments of the market. It is not about sticking to largecap or midcap. I do not think that that sort of a strategy will work because there will be largecaps which will make you no money and there will be small and midcaps which from here can make you multiples in the next two to three years. So, do your research and identify quality businesses is what I would say to your viewers.

By admin