The oil markets remained largely unmoved after former U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had vowed to stop buying Russian oil. According to Vandana Hari, Founder of Vanda Insights, traders are reacting cautiously, reflecting deep scepticism over the statement and its real-world implications.
“Indeed that is a very big question,” said Hari in an interview to ET Now. “As far as the market reaction is concerned, it is very muted clearly this morning. I mean, up 30–40 cents, but that is from yet another five-month low. So, what that is telling you is that there is probably a healthy dose of scepticism understandably because well, first of all there has been no official comment from India, so that is a major factor.”
Hari explained that ongoing U.S.–India trade discussions could also play a role. “We know there are trade talks going on between the U.S. and India. So, as part of that what gets promised but then what actually is delivered could be two very different things,” she said.
The energy expert also suggested that Trump’s remarks may be part of broader geopolitical manoeuvring. “This could very well be Trump’s way of exerting pressure on President Putin. We know Trump has been trying to do that. They have backpedalled a lot on plans for new sanctions directly on Russia and it seemed to have pivoted now, definitely Trump has, in trying to put pressure on countries like China, India, Turkey to stop buying Russian oil,” Hari noted.
According to her, markets are currently navigating through “a lot of noise” and remain focused on more immediate concerns. “The market is not ready to react and also there is just too much pressure right now on sentiment from expectations of a glut coming the market’s way,” she said.
When asked whether Indian refiners have reduced their crude purchases from Russia, Hari was unequivocal. “So, the short answer is no. If you look at the average of Indian crude imports from Russia over the first nine months of this year, about 1.72 million barrels per day, slightly lower than about 1.78 in the corresponding period of 2024,” she explained. Month-to-month variations, she said, depend largely on price discounts. “That is typically more in response to the discounts available in the market for Russian crude. Obviously, refiners are keener to buy more barrels when the discounts widen. But really not any reaction to direct, indirect threats from the West and certainly not as a result of the additional 25% U.S. tariffs that were imposed on India earlier this year for buying Russian crude,” Hari added. Despite the political noise, data shows that India’s energy policy continues to be driven more by economics than geopolitics. Markets, for now, are choosing pragmatism over panic.
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