New Delhi: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) now account for nearly two-thirds of the world’s total mortality and morbidity, led by ischemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes, according to the latest Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study published in The Lancet on Sunday, even as the global all-cause mean age at death increased from 46.8 years in 1990 to 63.4 years in 2023.
For men, the mean age increased from 45.4 years to 61.2 years, and for women it increased from 48.5 years to 65.9 years in the corresponding period.
Researchers also estimate that nearly half of all death and disability could be prevented by modifying some of the leading risk factors, such as reducing high levels of blood sugar and high body mass index (BMI).
“Over the past three decades, we found large reductions in age-standardised rates of YLLs [Years of Life lost] for four causes — respiratory infections and tuberculosis, nutritional deficiencies, other infectious diseases, and enteric infections — which had individual declines ranging from 58.9% to 79.0%,” said authors in the study.
The Global Burden of Disease study, published in The Lancet, is a comprehensive analysis that quantifies health loss from diseases, injuries, and risk factors and gets updated over a period of time.
In 2023, 60.1 million deaths occurred globally, of which 4.67 million were in children younger than 5 years. Due to considerable population growth and ageing since 1950, the number of annual deaths globally increased by 35.2% over the 1950–2023 study period, during which the global age-standardised all-cause mortality rate declined by 66.6%.
One of the papers titled ‘Global age-sex-specific all-cause mortality and life expectancy estimates for 204 countries and territories and 660 sub-national locations, 1950–2023: a demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023’, however, provides some good news that populations are healthier overall. Age-standardised DALYs (disability adjusted life years) have decreased by 12.6% since 2010.
“This study — part of the latest GBD release, GBD 2023 — aims to provide new and updated estimates of all-cause mortality and life expectancy for 1950 to 2023 using a novel statistical model that accounts for complex correlation structures in demographic data across age and time,” said authors in the paper.
Life expectancy exceeds pre-pandemic levels, with a median life expectancy of 76.3 years for females and 71.5 years for males.
Mental health must be taken far more seriously in global health.
Anxiety and depression showed some of the largest increases in age-standardised rates since 2010, by 62.8% and 26.3%, respectively.
Alzheimer’s disease is now in the top 25 causes of DALYs, behind cirrhosis and chronic liver disease. Modifiable risk factors account for a large proportion of global DALYs, with high systolic blood pressure the number one risk factor in 2023, followed by particulate matter pollution, high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and high BMI. Low birthweight and short gestation represented all DALYs.
“The rapid growth in the world’s ageing population and evolving risk factors have ushered in a new era of global health challenges,” said Dr Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine. “The evidence presented in the Global Burden of Disease study is a wake-up call, urging government and health care leaders to respond swiftly and strategically to the disturbing trends that are reshaping public health needs.”
Dr Murray’s team at IHME and its GBD Collaborator Network of 16,500 scientists and researchers collected and analysed data and produced estimates.
There is clearly still huge scope to improve health through targeting avoidable deaths and disease, said experts in a corresponding editorial.
“Comprehensive, comparable, and timely estimates of demographic metrics—including life expectancy and age-specific mortality — are essential for evaluating, understanding, and addressing trends in population health,” added authors in the paper.