The Nifty’s sharp slide on Monday may have unsettled investors, but one technical analyst says the damage is far less serious than it looks. Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Analyst at HDFC Securities, believes the index is setting up for a fresh leg higher and has identified two stocks primed for breakouts.
Stock pick one: Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
The bigger picture
What the charts are saying
After rallying nearly 1,800 points in recent sessions, the Nifty pulled back sharply after news broke of a ceasefire being called off. Shetti is not reading this as the start of a new downtrend.
“The way the market has declined on Monday has not damaged the underlying uptrend,” he told ET Now. After a prolonged series of lower tops and lower bottoms, the index now appears to have formed a higher bottom, which is typically an early sign that sellers are losing control.
Shetti sees the 23,500 to 23,400 zone as strong support on the downside. On the upside, a decisive move above 24,000 to 24,100 would open the door to 24,500 in the near term. For now, he describes today’s fall as a technical dip within a broader recovery.
Stock pick one: Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
Shetti’s first trade idea is Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, currently consolidating after recovering well from lower levels. The stock is sitting at the edge of a breakout above the consolidation range, with the broader chart pattern looking constructive.
Buy level: Rs 2,205
Target: Rs 2,310
Stop loss: Rs 2,150
The risk-reward on this trade is straightforward. A breakout above the consolidation zone at around Rs 2,210 would confirm the move, with roughly 105 points of upside against a 55-point downside risk.
Stock pick two: Oberoi Realty
The second idea comes from the real estate sector. Oberoi Realty has staged a sharp recovery, gapping up from lower levels with strong momentum. Crucially, the gap has remained open over three to four subsequent sessions, a sign that buyers are defending the move rather than fading it. The stock has also reclaimed its 200-day exponential moving average, a widely watched indicator of longer-term trend direction.
Buy level: Rs 1,684 (current price)
Target: Rs 1,800
Stop loss: Rs 1,630
The stock’s technical setup is among the cleaner ones in the broader market right now, with a confirmed breakout and a clear invalidation level.
The bigger picture
Shetti’s read on the market is one that many technical analysts will find reassuring. Short-term volatility driven by geopolitical headlines is difficult to time, but it rarely changes the structure of a chart that was already in recovery mode. The formation of a higher bottom on the Nifty after months of lower lows is a meaningful shift.
The key levels to watch are now well defined. A hold above 23,400 keeps the bullish case alive. A close above 24,100 would likely bring fresh momentum buyers into the market and put 24,500 firmly in sight.
For investors sitting on the sidelines, the message from the charts is that the risk of missing the move is starting to outweigh the risk of entering too early. Quality setups like Glenmark and Oberoi Realty, with defined entry points and stop losses, offer a disciplined way to participate without taking on undue directional risk.