As U.S. President Donald Trump approaches the end of his first year back in the White House, a growing body of polling data suggests that his political momentum may be fading. While Trump remains a dominant figure within the Republican Party, recent surveys from Reuters/Ipsos and NBC News indicate that his overall approval ratings have slipped close to their lowest levels of his current term. More strikingly, the erosion is no longer confined to independents or Democrats. It is increasingly visible among Republicans and even within his once-unshakable MAGA base. Together, these trends raise a critical question — has Trump passed the peak of his political influence?
The Reuters/Ipsos warning signs
A three-day Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted online and concluded last Sunday, paints a sobering picture for the White House. According to the survey of 1,016 U.S. adults, only 39% approve of Trump’s overall job performance. This marks a decline from 41% earlier in December and places his standing within a single percentage point of the 38% rating recorded in mid-November, his lowest approval reading of the year. The margin of error in the poll was three percentage points, but the downward trend is consistent enough to be politically meaningful.
This represents a significant fall from January 2025, when Trump returned to power with a relatively robust 47% approval rating. Since then, his popularity has steadily softened, particularly in relation to the economy, an issue long central to his political brand. Only 33% of adults surveyed said they approve of Trump’s handling of the U.S. economy, the weakest economic approval rating he has received this year.
Economic anxiety appears to be a key driver of this decline. Although a recent government shutdown disrupted the flow of official economic data, many economists believe employers have pulled back on hiring amid uncertainty triggered by Trump’s renewed tariffs on imports. Inflation has remained stubbornly high, hovering near 3%, well above the 2% level that policymakers typically regard as healthier. Voters have clearly felt this pressure in their daily lives. Trump’s approval rating on the cost of living dropped to 27%, down from 31% earlier in the month, underscoring persistent frustration with prices and household expenses.
Republican support holds but cracks are forming
At first glance, Trump’s grip on the Republican Party still looks firm. The Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that 85% of Republicans approve of his overall job performance, a figure unchanged from earlier in December. However, a deeper look reveals emerging fractures, particularly on economic management. Among Republicans, approval of Trump’s handling of the economy fell to 72%, its lowest point of the year and a notable decline from 78% earlier in the month.
This shift matters because Trump’s authority within the party has historically rested not just on loyalty, but on the perception that he delivers results, especially on economic issues. As that perception weakens, the fear factor that once kept Republican lawmakers and voters firmly in line may also begin to fade.
NBC News poll shows base enthusiasm softening
The broader national picture is reinforced by a large-scale NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey. Surveying more than 20,000 adults online between November 20 and December 8, the poll found that Trump’s approval rating stands at 42%, with 58% disapproving. This represents a three-point decline from April, when the survey was first conducted in 2025, and confirms that Trump’s approval has remained consistently underwater throughout the year.Beyond the topline numbers, NBC News highlights more subtle but politically consequential shifts in the intensity of public opinion. The share of Americans who say they strongly approve of Trump has fallen to 21%, down from 26% in April. At the same time, strong disapproval has edged upward, rising from 42% to 44%. These changes suggest not only fading enthusiasm among supporters, but also hardening opposition among critics.
Economic concerns again loom large. Despite Trump’s campaign promises to ease inflation and reduce costs, voters continue to express anxiety about everyday expenses, from groceries to holiday spending. These worries have translated into declining confidence in Trump’s leadership. Other controversies have compounded the problem, including his handling of the dispute over the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files. Trump initially resisted a congressional push to make the files public, only reversing course last month under bipartisan pressure, a sequence that appears to have damaged perceptions of transparency and accountability.
The MAGA base is still loyal but less dominant
Perhaps the most revealing findings from the NBC poll concern changes within the Republican coalition itself. Two groups show the largest decline in strong support for Trump since April: Republicans overall, and especially those aligned with the MAGA movement. Among Republicans who identify more with the party than with MAGA, the share who strongly approve of Trump now stands at 35%, down from 38% earlier this year.
Support remains much higher among self-identified MAGA Republicans, 70% of whom say they strongly approve of Trump’s performance. Yet even here, the decline is notable. Strong approval within this group has fallen by eight points since April, when it stood at 78%. Equally important is a shift in identity itself. Whereas a majority of Republicans identified with the MAGA movement in April, the latest survey shows the party evenly split between traditional Republicans and MAGA-aligned voters. This suggests that Trump’s core base, while still passionate, may be shrinking as a share of the broader Republican electorate.
Slipping grip on power?
These polling trends have begun to shape elite perceptions as well. As the Financial Times observed in an article titles “Has Trump passed his peak?” in November, “the opening act of the US president’s second term is over,” implying that Trump’s period of maximum political leverage may have passed. A CNN analysis goes further, warning that Republicans are increasingly willing to defy Trump because they fear him less than they once did.
The CNN report says, “The danger for Trump now is that Republicans are beginning to see him as a lame duck, and they don’t fear political consequences of breaking with him as much. We’ve started to see examples of this, from the House Republicans who bucked him to force the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files to Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia to the recent vote in the Indiana Senate, where a majority of Republicans stood up to Trump’s demands that they redraw their congressional map. Having the strong support of only 1 in 5 Americans isn’t going to suddenly open the floodgates for Republicans to break with Trump. But it does suggest his truly devoted base is looking about as small as ever.”
The Reuters/Ipsos and NBC News polls suggest that Trump may indeed be past his political peak. His approval ratings have slipped close to their lowest levels of the year, economic dissatisfaction is widespread and enthusiasm within his own base is waning. While he still remains the most influential figure in Republican politics, the aura of invincibility that once defined his leadership is fading.
Trump is not politically finished, nor is his base insignificant. But there are indications that Trump could be going downhill from his peak popularity when he returned to power early this year.
(With inputs from agencies)