In October, China, India and Turkey collectively received about 90% of Russia’s crude exports. (AI image)

US President Donald Trump’s sanctions on two of Russia’s major oil firms have finally hit the crude supply to India. As per latest data, the shipments of Russia’s crude oil have dropped drastically by 66% in November, as refineries in India remain cautious of US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil which come into effect from November 21.According to Kpler, a provider of global real-time data and analytics, Russian crude destined for India averaged 672,000 barrels per day (bpd) during November 1-17. This is a substantial decrease from October’s 1.88 million bpd. Russia’s overall shipments across all destinations decreased by 28% to 2.78 million bpd in November, according to an ET report quoting Kpler data.

Significantly, approximately 50% of loaded tankers are currently travelling without specified destinations, indicating difficulties in securing buyers and sanction-compliant routes. Deliveries to other major customers, China and Turkey, also showed reduction. Chinese-bound shipments decreased by 47% to 624,000 bpd, whilst Turkish deliveries reduced by 87% to 43,000 bpd.Also Read | ‘So close so many times…’: Trump admin official on India-US trade deal; points to ‘complicated situation’ due to India’s Russia ties

In October, China, India and Turkey collectively received about 90% of Russia’s crude exports. Given that Russian shipments typically require a month to reach India, the majority of November’s dispatches will arrive in December, following the November 21 deadline for the US sanctions wind-down period.

Crude shock

Indian refiners have reduced new orders whilst expediting existing shipments to meet deadlines, affecting loading schedules. The impact is evident in the increased deliveries: Russian oil imports rose 16% to 1.88 million bpd from 1-17 November compared with October’s average.“Recent tanker activity suggests a notable shift in Russian crude trading behaviour, marked by mid-voyage diversions between India and China and ship-to-ship transfers at unusual locations such as off Mumbai’s coast, far from the typical transfer zones near the Singapore Strait,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst—refining & modeling at Kpler according to the ET report. “These developments reflect evolving logistical tactics by Russian exporters navigating tightening Western sanctions.“Russian oil transportation networks are increasingly utilising less transparent methods, including the use of sanctioned vessels or shadow-fleet tankers for the majority of crude transportation before transferring to non-sanctioned vessels permitted to dock at Indian ports, where sanctioned ships cannot berth. According to the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, sanctioned tankers transported 44% of Russian crude in October.Also Read | Busting myths! H-1B visa holders are not ‘cheap labour’ – why foreign workers are important for USIndia should anticipate a significant reduction in Russian crude imports in the upcoming months, particularly during December and January, according to Ritolia. He states that “a noticeable drop” is expected, with refiners likely adopting more careful approaches, including the use of unsanctioned traders, blended products, and complex logistics to reduce US OFAC risk exposure. Russian supplies will continue but through less transparent channels.The US sanctions imposed on Rosneft and Lukoil last month affect approximately 3 million barrels of daily shipments, with India receiving roughly one-third of this volume. Several Indian refiners have openly declared their intention to avoid business dealings with sanctioned entities.The US administration’s sanctions strategy aims to reduce Moscow’s income and impact its military operations in Ukraine. At the same time, bilateral trade discussions between New Delhi and Washington have positioned energy as a crucial negotiating factor. In a recent development, Indian state-owned companies have established their first yearly agreement to purchase LPG from American suppliers, which will fulfil approximately 10% of the nation’s import requirements.