The United Nations weather agency warned on Friday that a strong El Nino is expected to intensify starting in August, warning that the phenomenon is likely to increase above-normal temperatures globally and significantly shift rainfall patterns.
- El Nino, a period of warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, will continue to steadily intensify into a strong event during August-October 2026.
- In addition to a strengthening El Nino, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast. An IOD is a climate pattern in the western Indian Ocean that becomes warmer on average, while the eastern Indian Ocean becomes cooler than average.
- Together, these phenomena can amplify regional climate impacts including drought, floods and wildfire risk, particularly around the Indian Ocean basin.
- The agency, the World Meteorological Organisation, said it is intensifying its mobilisation of information and support services to help countries anticipate and minimise the impacts of El Nino.
- “El Nino is strengthening – adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas. Fossil fuels are fanning the flames of this crisis,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.