Crude oil prices slipped after US President Donald Trump said Washington would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, easing fears of supply concerns and attacks on energy infrastructure.
In a post on Truth Social on Thursday, Trump said the US was holding productive discussions with Iran and maintained that the Strait of Hormuz remained under US control. He reiterated that Iran would not be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon and claimed that oil shipments through the strategic waterway were flowing at record volumes.
Crude oil price on October 9
Brent crude fell 1% to $103, while West Tax Intermediate was down 0.75% to $90.5. In the previous session, Brent crude futures settled $4.08, or 4.1%, higher at $104.28 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained $3.21, or 3.6%, to close at $91.49. Both contracts rose more than $5 a barrel at one point, with Brent hitting its highest level since September 29.
In a post on Truth Social on Thursday, Trump said the US was holding productive discussions with Iran and maintained that the Strait of Hormuz remained under US control. He reiterated that Iran would not be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon and claimed that oil shipments through the strategic waterway were flowing at record volumes.
Trump’s remarks came after a rise in attacks on oil and commercial tankers in the crucial shipping route. According to the UK Maritime Organization, at least nine attacks were reported in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf during the first seven days of October, already accounting for 50% of the total attacks recorded in September.
Meanwhile, The New York Times reported that the US had prepared plans for a three-day military operation against Iran, targeting drone and missile arsenals, energy facilities and other sites. Oil prices also remained supported by the ongoing conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen, along with a sharp rise in tanker freight rates.
Iran’s Fars news agency reported that several “heavy explosions” took place in the Strait of Hormuz late Thursday after oil tankers attempting to cross the waterway’s southern route were struck by mines. The report cited unidentified sources from Iran’s military, and there was no independent confirmation of the incident.Traders were also monitoring Hurricane Isaias, which is expected to make landfall along the US Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. Alabama, Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle are among the areas at risk. The storm has put about 1.3 million barrels per day of oil supply, representing more than 60% of the region’s output, out of bounds.
Where are prices headed?
“We simply don’t know how to model the endgame,” JPMorgan analysts said, highlighting the uncertainty over how the conflict could develop. When the conflict began, the bank had assumed there were economic thresholds the US administration would not cross. Six months into the war, JPMorgan said many of those thresholds had been crossed, while there was still no clear exit strategy.
The risk of further supply disruptions has also increased the possibility of higher oil prices. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said recent attacks had shown that disruptions to shipping could spread and become more severe.
Goldman Sachs has outlined a scenario in which oil prices could rise as high as $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East intensify. If exports return to normal, the bank expects oil prices to move back towards $80 a barrel.
Struyven told Bloomberg that risks to shipping had become a key driver of oil prices. Goldman Sachs sees “meaningful upside to crude oil prices” and also expects natural gas and refined product prices to rise. Struyven said supply shocks in gas and fuels are larger than those in the crude market.
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