It is never a good sign when a country’s leader, on the eve of an election, appears at a military base and speaks of signs that unspecified enemies are plotting an attack. It is alarming, and equally suspicious, when the person doing so is a prime minister desperate to win re-election, retain political power, and escape the day of reckoning in court over corruption charges. It was, therefore, difficult not to view with skepticism Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s video, filmed at an Israeli Air Force base in front of a fighter jet, in which he claimed: “We have indications that, ahead of the elections, our enemies will try to attack us.”
His remarks deserve very close scrutiny, particularly given that he apparently failed to heed warnings of an imminent attack in the weeks and months leading up to the Hamas assault on Oct. 7, 2023. Netanyahu’s desperation to salvage what remains of his image as “Mr. Security” ahead of a crucial election is there for everyone to see. Nevertheless, even his political maneuvers are becoming increasingly transparent. On the very same day, he met with Yair Lapid, the opposition leader, as required by law in the event of a new security threat, yet failed to specify the nature of the alleged threat. Moreover, Israeli media reported that the military had detected no such threat from any of Israel’s enemies ahead of the election. The Israeli military was not on a higher state of alert than usual and had not mobilized additional troops. This has fueled suspicions that, depending on his standing in the opinion polls, Netanyahu might, at best, escalate regional tensions and, at worst, initiate a confrontation on one or more fronts.
Adding to Netanyahu’s humiliation, in what appears to be yet another cheap electioneering maneuver, Central Elections Committee chair Noam Sohlberg ordered the removal of the video from Netanyahu’s personal social media accounts. The video was deemed to contain “elements of election propaganda.” Sohlberg also said that using a personal account to send messages to foreign countries was unacceptable. This is yet another indication of the current Israeli leader’s disregard for long-standing norms.
Since October 2023, Netanyahu has presided over a deliberate continuation of military conflicts, with no clear political horizon.
Yossi Mekelberg
Netanyahu’s rule-breaking, and alleged law-breaking, currently under court scrutiny, is hardly news. But on this occasion, after three exhausting years of war and conflict, deliberately spreading panic to secure a few more votes is irresponsible and selfish in the extreme. Netanyahu has long prospered politically from conflict and war, the fertile ground on which his political career has thrived since its early days. He initially fashioned himself as a counterterrorism expert, while effectively leveraging his status as the brother of one of the heroes of the Entebbe rescue operation. He subsequently propelled himself toward the premiership by inciting opposition to the Rabin government for daring to pursue peace through the Oslo Accords. Throughout his career, he has made the threat posed by Iran a centerpiece of his political ascendancy. That threat was not without merit, but portraying Iran as an irredeemable existential menace, as he did again in his most recent address to the UN General Assembly, describing the war with Iran as a “battle against barbarians,” has served less as a considered strategic assessment than as a means of keeping Israel in a perpetual state of conflict and emergency.
Netanyahu thrives amid vitriol and aggression. To retain political power, he has been prepared to compromise Israel’s democratic system. Since October 2023, he has also presided over a deliberate continuation of military conflicts, with no clear political horizon. According to numerous accounts, he has been willing to sacrifice the lives of hostages held by Hamas to keep his coalition intact, a strategy that contributed to the loss of 41 hostages, many of whom could potentially have been saved through a negotiated deal. His constant need to prove that he is Israel’s defender, as he so “modestly” likes to portray himself, has become even more acute since Oct. 7. Having failed his people on a colossal scale, he has doubled down on military force, pursuing operations on seven different fronts.
It is not only the opposition that has suggested that war could lead to the postponement of the election. Israeli military chief Eyal Zamir has reportedly shared his concerns with US military and political officials, warning that a confrontation with Iran could lead to the postponement of the forthcoming elections, scheduled for Oct. 27.
Above all, Netanyahu’s greatest political asset has always been his ability to harness fear to his advantage. Constant crisis, emergency, uncertainty, and anger, often transformed into division and a desire for revenge, define his political operating environment. It is also the source of his political success as well as his failures in statesmanship. Many Israelis are so fearful of their enemies, not that those enemies do not exist, that they are too frightened to entrust the reins of power to anyone who even remotely believes in diplomatic solutions. The relationship between Netanyahu and his supporters increasingly resembles some Stockholm syndrome, while an entire generation has grown up knowing little else.
Netanyahu’s deliberate perpetuation of conflict stems from one of his most conspicuous shortcomings: his inability to translate tactical battlefield achievements into long-term strategic and diplomatic gains. Despite legitimate and strong reservations about Israel’s conduct of its wars and its excessive use of force, the military balance shifted considerably after the Hamas Oct. 7 attack, followed by Hezbollah’s entry into the conflict from the north. The military and Israel’s other security services moved from a defensive to an offensive posture, substantially weakening both organizations’ military capabilities and demonstrating Israel’s military superiority, including in its confrontation with Iran.
Yet Israel is now less secure than ever. It has lost many friends and allies who can no longer accept the human cost of the government’s military operations or the regional instability it has generated. Politically, Netanyahu has lacked the courage, or, in recent years, the willingness, to pursue a different course, largely because he is obsessed with staying in power. Instead, he has surrounded himself with some of the most hawkish and strategically short-sighted figures in Israeli politics. The path to remaining in the prime minister’s office has increasingly depended on the use of force.
Little time remains before Israelis go to the ballot box. The prospect of postponing the election because of a military escalation will continue to hang over the country and the region. Such a postponement would leave Netanyahu and the right in government, while further undermining Israel’s democratic institutions. This argument is not made merely to portray Netanyahu in an even worse light than he already deserves. It stems from apprehension grounded in experience and observation.
Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg