RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Business Confidence Index remained firmly in optimistic territory at 56.6 in September, despite a marginal decline from the previous month, official data showed.
According to the latest report by the General Authority for Statistics, the index eased by 0.1 points from August’s 56.7, remaining well above the neutral 50-point mark and signalling continued optimism among businesses.
After falling to 52.1 in March, the BCI rebounded to 54.5 in April and strengthened further to 55.6 in May and 56.6 in June, before easing to 56.5 in July and rising to 56.7 in August.
The Kingdom’s business confidence remained resilient amid regional uncertainty following the US-Iran conflict, which has disrupted supply chains and industrial activity across parts of the Middle East.
The resilience in business confidence was reflected in broader private-sector activity. The Riyad Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 55.3 in September from 53.8 in August, signalling the strongest improvement in non-oil private-sector business conditions since February.
In its latest report, GASTAT said: “The BCI reflects prevailing optimism in the business sector, supported by establishments’ confidence in the stability of economic activity and continued growth across various sectors.”
Commenting on the report, Thomas Kuruvilla, managing partner of Arthur D. Little Middle East and India, said Saudi Arabia’s business confidence was increasingly being underpinned by visibility of future demand, rather than simply the short-term economic cycle.
“The Business Confidence Index has recovered from 52.1 in March to 56.6 in September and remained above 56 since June, despite regional volatility and supply-chain pressures. That resilience reflects the breadth of investment and sector development underway across the Kingdom and gives businesses greater confidence to plan beyond the immediate cycle,” said Kuruvilla.
He added: “The priority now is to convert that confidence into sustainable private-sector growth. Businesses should use this period to invest selectively in capabilities, talent and local supply chains, while maintaining strong discipline around capital and returns.”
Sectoral outlook
In the industry sector, the BCI rose 0.5 points to 56.3 in September from 55.8 in August. GASTAT attributed the increase to higher confidence in overall performance and expected sales for the following month.
The services sector remained optimistic, although its index fell 0.7 points to 55.4 from 56.1 in August. GASTAT attributed the decline to lower confidence regarding input costs in the current month and those expected for the following month.
Construction confidence also remained above the neutral threshold, at 57.1 points, down 0.2 points from 57.3 in August.
“This decline (in the construction sector) was attributed to lower levels of confidence regarding input costs in the current month and those expected for the following month,” said GASTAT.
Earlier this month, the alrajhi capital Saudi Construction Index showed that construction activity in the Kingdom expanded for a fifth consecutive month in September, although the headline index eased to 54.4 from 55.4 in August.
“Going forward, the construction sector’s outlook will increasingly be shaped by quality of execution rather than simply quantity of projects. Greater emphasis on commercial viability, disciplined project sequencing, local supply-chain development, productivity and delivery capability should help create a more sustainable construction market,” said Kuruvilla.
He added: “For well-capitalized and capable participants, this provides an opportunity to plan capacity more effectively, invest selectively and focus on projects with clearer delivery pathways and stronger long-term economic value.”
The BCI is an economic indicator that reflects establishments’ optimism regarding current business conditions and future expectations. It is based on a survey of establishments operating across various non-oil economic activities classified under the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities.