Washington: El Niño is expected to strengthen further during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter, with a greater than 90% probability of a very strong event developing during the 2026-27 season, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC).
The CPC said on Thursday that forecasts indicate increasing confidence that the climate pattern will intensify over the coming months.
According to the agency, there is a 69% chance that the El Niño event during the October-December 2026 period will reach historic levels and exceed the intensity of all previously recorded El Niño events dating back to 1950.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon can influence weather patterns around the world, affecting rainfall, drought conditions, temperatures and storm activity in different regions.
The latest forecast suggests the developing event could rank among the strongest on record if current trends continue through the end of the year.